How Racing Foundation-funded risk models are being used to improve outcomes for racehorses

6 Dec 2024

British racing, in partnership with the Royal Veterinary College (RVC), is now using detailed, rich data spanning 14 years to identify and help reduce risk in the sport, via the Racing Risk Models (RRM).

The RRM outputs provide powerful data and epidemiological evidence using advanced statistical techniques to better understand the risk factors in racing that lead to long-term injuries, falls and fatalities in racehorses.

The project is jointly led by the British Horseracing Authority (BHA) and the sport’s independently-chaired Horse Welfare Board as part of the industry’s focus on improving safety and reducing risk to the equine athletes that power the sport.

Funding of the Racing Risk Model is part of the Racing Foundation’s £3million multi-year grant award that supports the delivery of the horse welfare projects in the industry’s A Life Well Lived strategy, overseen by the Horse Welfare Board. This three-year grant is providing support for 15 of the 26 projects prioritised in the strategy.

Chief Executive of the Racing Foundation Tansy Challis said “Equine welfare is a key area of focus for the Racing Foundation and the safety of our equine participants is at the forefront of the sport’s priorities. 

“We firmly believe that a collaborative and strategic approach to horse welfare projects is vital to ensure continued progress in this important area and are pleased to see the Horse Welfare Board, British Horseracing Authority and Royal Veterinary College working together to identify and reduce avoidable risk in racing.”

As part of the RRM, experienced academic researchers from the RVC analyse data collected for each race start in Britain, including horse details, racing history, trainer, jockey and racecourse information, combined with details of any adverse outcomes sustained during the race.

Potential risk factors identified by the model span five general categories – horse, race, course, trainer and jockey. Experts at the Royal Veterinary College apply multivariable statistical modelling to the data to identify areas of increased risk, and the strength of association. This then allows for predictive models to potentially identify how injury and fatality rates might be affected by any individual factors.

Heading up the RVC team are principal investigator, Professor Kristien Verheyen, Professor of Veterinary Clinical Epidemiology and Dr Sarah Allen, Lecturer in Veterinary Clinical Epidemiology.

Professor Verheyen has published extensively on the epidemiology of racehorse injuries in British racing and along with Dr Allen, co-authored a paper on the risks of fatality in National Hunt flat racing. 

“We’re pleased to be working in collaboration with British racing to improve our understanding of the causes of negative outcomes in racehorses,” she said.

“This research will greatly help the industry in making scientifically backed decisions that will benefit the welfare of the sport’s equine participants, which must be the number one priority of all involved in racing.”

James Given, Director of Equine Regulation, Safety and Welfare at the British Horse Racing Authority and member of the Horse Welfare Board added “The Royal Veterinary College Epidemiological Team have academic expertise and independence that delivers scientifically rigorous evidence that enables recommendations and actions to be based on indisputable data. 

“Reduction of risk and injury is one of the core pillars of our welfare strategy and informed evidence-based decision making is integral to this.”

In 2023, the model was expanded to include flat racing data alongside the 400,000 jump records already analysed as part of the project.

How the data is used

British racing’s Equine Safety Group (ESG) is the next step in analysing and assessing the data produced by the RRM. Led by the BHA, the ESG is made up of experts from across British racing including owners, trainers, jockeys, racecourses, veterinary and safety advisors and internal data analysts.

Collectively, the ESG overlay data from the RRM with deep practical knowledge from all corners of the sport, alongside other safety and risk-related projects that are running concurrently. The ESG then make recommendations to the sport as to further research or analysis, consultation procedures or proposals for change.

Making British horse racing safer

British racing will always strive for the highest equine welfare standards and to reduce risk to its equine athletes. As new data emerges and future race starts are analysed, the RVC and ESG will continue to explore risk factors, their associations and potential recommendations for the future.

But enhanced safety for horses as a result of the findings has already begun. For example, the RVC’s modelling has showed the use of One-Fit Padded Hurdles would reduce the risk of horses falling by 11%. As a result, British racing has committed to replacing all traditional birch hurdles with One-Fit Padded Hurdles at all racecourses by 1 October 2026.

The staging of the 2025 world-famous Randox Grand National Festival at Aintree Racecourse and the Cheltenham Festival will be run over One-Fit Padded Hurdles, as part of an accelerated investment by The Jockey Club.

Other areas of ongoing research informed by the RRM include reviewing horses who fall more than once in a given timeframe, a review of ‘tight’ tracks, the impact of field sizes, ground and going, race value, horse age, country of origin, and a review of maiden and novice races.

Additional areas of future consideration include evaluating other horse-related factors not yet considered in the current model such as their training, medication, and injury history. This may also help improve the ability of the model to predict a horse’s risk of an adverse outcome prior to a race start.

The use of data and the RRM forms just one part of British racing’s ongoing and unwavering commitment to improving safety and welfare. Since 2019, the sport’s Horse Welfare Board has delivered 8 major projects in welfare, with 12 actively progressing. Projects and developments within the core pillar of safety have ranged from the changing of all obstacle markers from orange to white, improvements to obstacle design and placement, the development of a Fatality Review process which holistically reviews every racecourse fatality, improved transparency around risk through the HorsePWR campaign, the publishing of euthanasia guidelines and more.

Roly Owers, Chief Executive of World Horse Welfare, commented “Evidence-based decisions are vital to ensure the right changes are made to improve welfare and safety in horse sport, so we welcome the long-term investment in the work on the RRM and the impact it will have in protecting horses and jockeys.  

“No activity with horses can ever be risk-free but racing poses specific risks, and so it is right that British racing is using its own data to identify and reduce avoidable risks.”

For further information on welfare in British horse racing, visit horsepwr.co.uk